Polycrisis: A cluster of interdependent global risks create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts. (1)
In this era of global polycrisis, over the course of 2023 leaders were also reacting to the major macro economic trend of the last thirty years – the fundamental driver of the tetonic shifts in geopolitics and deep inside the economies of nation-states – which is that the BRICs global share of GDP May Overtake the G7 by 2028. 2023 also felt like a shift to the kinetic, as Putin continues to double down in Europe and Hamas opened a new deeply kinetic front on the Paleistinian border with Israel.
Underlying all these tactical geopolitical manueuvers, the fact remains that technology-focused strategic blueprints continue to play themselves out in a larger “great power” global competition. The goal? The strategic geopolitical and technological domination of:
- Newly Contested Arenas (space, the Arctic, emerging technologies, and climate change-driven resources).
- Information Warfare (cyberattacks, ransomware, and influence campaigns); and
- Gray Zone/Hybrid Warfare (kinetic maneuvers in service of larger influence campaigns and cyberwar strategy)
See below for some of the noteworthy events from and critical perspectives on the last year in the intersection of geopolitical risk and technology. The geopolitical players and regions of the global polycrisis (jagged transitions, strategies, binaries fractures, major developments, and crucial events) reviewed here include:
- Globalization Transformed and the Global Computer Chip IT Supply Chain Disruption;
- The Middle East, China and the Indo-Pacific, and Russia, Ukraine, and NATO; and
- The Americas, The Northern Frontier of Mexico, The Arctic, and Africa
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Globalization Transformed and The Global Chip IT Supply Chain Disruption
Globalization Transformed
Globalization is transforming to regionalization due to strains from a global pandemic and emerging conceptions of national and economic security tied to geographic self-sufficiency. Globalization may suffer from the same binary fracture tendencies we discussed in the OODA Almanac 2023 – which will create more frequent pockets of instability and increase economic, health, and food disparities. In 2023, we tracked these developments closely:
What Next? The BRICs Global Share of GDP May Overtake the G7 by 2028: Starting in 1992, the time-based “BRICs “Versus the G7” visualizes the BRIC countries path towards overtaking the G7 in global share of GDP – adjusted for purchasing power (PPP) – by 2028. It is this growing parity that is creating permission and incentive structures – along with new policy models and value proposition designs – to enable the BRIC countries to move away from legacy fiscal and monetary systems “controlled” by the U.S. and the G7 countries (including, again, the assumption that the dollar will remain the singular fiat reserve currency on which the global economy is based).
The Regional Impact of the CHIPS and Science Act: To better understand how the CHIPS and Science Act can promote regional economic growth and innovation, The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Renewing American Innovation Project held an all day conference earlier this year on ‘Enhancing the Regional Impact of the CHIPS and Science Act’ cohosted by the Indiana University Public Policy Institute. Following are some of the key takeaways from the Building Regional Research Ecosystems panel – along with links to the transcript and videos from the event.
Potential BRICS Expansion Influence Offers Alternative to West: In July 2023, South Africa hosted a “Friends of BRICS” two-day meeting to discuss various global security challenges affecting their regions with cybersecurity topping the agenda. BRICS is a term to coined by Goldman Sachs to refer to the fast-growing and emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, whose low labor costs, favorable demographics, and abundant natural resources are expected to propel them as global leaders by 2050. The meeting was an opportunity for these governments to identify potential problem areas, discuss solutions, identify areas for potential cooperation, and prepare for the BRICS summit that will occur next month. BRICS weren’t the only countries in attendance in South Africa; “Friends of BRICS” included a group of countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS, as well.
Globalization Transformed: Community Colleges and the CHIPS and Science Act: The Center for American Progress is on the U.S. regional and local innovation beat – with brilliant work on the future of the American Community College System and the Chips Act which explores many of the aforementioned aspects of globalization transformed.
OODA Network Perspectives on the Regional Chaos and Corruption Driving the Historic Diaspora to the North: OODA Network Perspectives on the Regional Chaos and Corruption Driving the Historic Diaspora to the North: The following perspective was part of the OODA Network monthly meeting held on Friday, April 21st, 2023 – a discussion that is now more prescient than ever in the wake of the expiration of Title 42 (effective in the early AM 4/21/23) – which is an OODA Network subject matter expert on the security conditions in Mexico, Central America, and South America provided the following intelligence on the general instability in Mexico, Central America, and South America.
Blockchain Meets Bio: The Recent Synthetic Biology Summit and “Sustainable Biomanufacturing for Future Network States”: The new framing and systems thinking that came out of the conclave highlighted here are kind of mindblowing – and exciting. This community of practice is eating the future whole. As a result, critical paths to the future and solutions for the future are emerging in this space – and they are more clearly drawn than the mixed promise of the future offered by other industry verticals. Enjoy this read – and our insights on the future metrics for success, nascent key performance indicators, leaning into the abundance, and an edgy vision of hope – while building the future through community, innovation, openness, collaboration, and creativity.
The Future of Food (In)Security and Agriculture Cybersecurity: Grain Hoarding, Rice Shortages and the War in Ukraine: Global Health Security is a research area we will be laying out in the next few months, including the role of cybersecurity and emerging and exponential technologies in the areas of: Pandemic Preparedness – Digital Wellness – Biological Agents and Infectious Diseases – Food and Agriculture Industry Sector and Cybersecurity – Domestic – Preparedness & Response – Medicine and Public Health – Cognitive infrastructure, Global Public Health, and Growing Food Insecurity – wrought by faltering economic and food security, which is where we start with a few broad perspectives on food security in Europe and Central Asia.
Opportunities for Advantage: Reshoring Manufacturing and Shortening Supply Chains; Global supply chains continue to experience the impact of the late March 2022 Shanghai and Shenzen Covid-19 lockdowns in China, which impacted the port operations of both cities, sending a long-term ripple effect into the global supply chain.
The Global Chip IT Supply Chain Disruption
The OODA team has been participating in “wargame” and red team exercises for over 25 years ranging from traditional DoD Office of Net Assessment games to scenario planning for the Fortune 500. We have personally witnessed the impact these exercises can have in establishing appropriate frameworks for thinking about future risks and opportunities. During one of our OODA Network monthly calls, one our members proposed that the OODA Network could be utilized for rapid wargaming on critical issues, with members suggesting the first be on the global computer chip supply chain.
The report – Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption – is the outcome of our first OODA wargame, which we have branded as a Stratigame (Strategic Game), focusing on the global computer chip supply chain issues. Over 25 members of the OODA Network of Experts participated in this Stratigame where the OODA research team developed four scenarios and then led a structured discussion in which experts provided unique insights into potential impacts of these scenarios, adjacent risks and opportunities, and recommended actions that would allow us to avoid the negative impacts of a particular scenario or nudge us into a more favorable scenario.
Following are some recent developments we have tracked that map to the foresight strategy and insights of the Stratigame report:
A Vital Market Development in the Production Capacity of the Global Computer Chip Supply Chain: Since the publication of the OODA Stratigame, Netherlands-based ASML Holding has always figured prominently in our tracking and has been central to many of the export control controversies in the ongoing “Chip Wars.” Why? ASML was the singular global supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines vital to the production of a particular type of high performance semiconductor. It has been clear for a few years new competition and solutions to broaden this production capability globally was crucial to all future global computer chip supply chain scenarios. Japan-based Canon has entered the field. Details here.
China’s Gallium and Germanium-based Countermeasures in the Global Chip Supply Chain War: Tactically, China recently made a significant geopoltical and in the IT supply chain move, restricting exports of two minerals used in high-performance chips. Following is a summary of the new Chinese policy – followed by links to our original analysis series on rare earth, critical minerals and the global IT supply chain (disruption, innovation and weaponization).
Japan Challenges China with Rare Earth Metal Extraction from Seabed by 2024: Two of the clear strategic playing fields for competitive advantage are the future of battery production and high-performance computational capabilities. In both cases, rare earth minerals – crucial to the production of everything from semiconductors to electric vehicle (EV) batteries – are the critical risk factor in the future of a green global economy and emerging technologies. Geography and geopolitics matter when it comes to sourcing these materials, especially any future supply chain dependencies on other countries, including potential adversaries. Japan is getting its own strategic house in order – and is stepping up its efforts to access regional rare earth resources in a bid to challenge China on a variety of fronts.
The Secondary Chip and Hardware Markets: The Strategic Importance of Legacy Chips: In March, researchers at The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on “The Strategic Importance of Legacy Chips” – which addresses many of the questions we left open-ended and ripe for follow-on research in our 2021 OODA Stratigame: Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption. Here, we take a look at how the CSIS report’s framing, insights and recommendations map to our ongoing tracking of what some are calling “The Chip Wars.”
The Current State of the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Shows Signs of Strategic Strength: In March, we extended our tracking of minerals for semiconductor production to the annual Unites States Geological Survey (USGS) 2022 List of Critical Minerals, which includes minerals like Palladium, C4F6, Helium, and Scandium – all of which are used in semiconductor production and or the manufacturing of sensors and memory. In April, we provided a general update on the global chip supply chain disruption in the context of more esoteric updates like: Fake chips as a growing threat to national security and critical systems; Neon output for chips cut in half since Russia’s attack on Ukraine; and Design concerns shifting towards component sourcing (brought on by component shortages which have created a concern for long-term sourcing, even for prototypes). We now widen the lens further to garner broad industry insights from the annual Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) 2021 State of the U.S. Semiconductor Industry and SIA 2022 Factbook.
Semiconductor Innovation is More Than Just Reshoring the Traditional Industrial Base: Bob Gleichauf, EVP, Global Technology at In-Q-Tel, in a recently released position paper on the Chips and Science Act of 2022, explains why the legislation needs a “check engine light” to indicate problems and anticipate challenges, as well as maximize taxpayer return on their CHIPS investment.
Building Resilient Supply Chains and Semiconductor Manufacturing: In February 2021, The White House issued an Executive Order on securing America’s supply chains, calling for “an immediate 100-day review across federal agencies to address vulnerabilities in the supply chains of four key products…semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging; large capacity batteries, like those for electric vehicles; critical minerals and materials; and pharmaceuticals and advanced pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).” The final review was delivered in June of 2021. The Department of Commerce (DoC) took the lead in authoring the section on semiconductor manufacturing. The final report is an exhaustive 250-page document, of which 60 pages are dedicated to a semiconductor and advanced packaging supply chain risk assessment, along with sections on opportunities and challenges ahead, concluding with recommendations.
China’s Formal Bid for Global Dominance of the Semiconductor Supply Chain: In an April 2021 report from the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the CRS summarizes the August 2020 China State Council issued “Notice on Several Policies to Promote the High-quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Era”, which provides a framework for building competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry. In March of 2021 implementation measures were announced by the Chines government, policies that encourage, according to the CRS, “U.S. and foreign semiconductor companies—including those from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau—to transfer certain technology, intellectual property (IP), talent, and research and development (R&D) to operations in China. These policies offer preferential terms over the next ten years—including tax, tariff, financing, and IP protection—for firms willing to establish capabilities, including production facilities, in China.”
The State Department’s Sustained $500M Commitment to Bolster Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Security (as Prescribed by the 2021 OODA Stratigame): The State Department “unveiled details of its plans to use $100 million of funding provided under the 2022 CHIPS Act to improve semiconductor supply chain security and international information and communications technology security. The law provides the agency with $100 million of funding per year for those purposes for the five-year period beginning in fiscal year 2023.
The Global Polycrisis: The Middle East, China, The Indo-Pacific, Russia, Ukraine, and NATO
The Middle East
The Future of War is 3D-Printed Tourniquets, Digital Twin Smart Cities, and “AI and Robotics in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response”: Personal displacement figured prominently in the OODA Almanac 2023 theme of “Jagged Transitions” – which was meant to invoke the challenges inherent in the adoption of disruptive technologies while still entrenched in low-entropy old systems and in the face of systemic global community threats and “the risks of personal displacement.” While tragic- and exacurbating the polycrisis and global uncertainty – the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East is also now a large scale “edge case” of war as a force function (or accelerant) in the exponential growth of technology platforms and solutions in additive manufacturing, digital twins, AI, and robotics as applied to humanitarian assistance and disaster response.
The Global Technology Sector, Startups, and Cybersecurity Ecosystem Respond to the War in Israel: Israel is a major player in the global technology sector – boasting the second largest cyber startup market in the world. Here is how the conditions on the ground in Israel and Gaza is rippling into the technology startup and venture capital ecosystem globally.
On AI Enabled Weapons and the Just Preparation for War: BABL AI – an Iowa city, Iowa-based company that audits and certifies AI systems – partnered with the Stockdale Center for Ethical Leadership at the U.S. Naval Academy to co-publish Report on “AI Enabled Weapons and Just Preparation for War.” an overview of the report including recommendations by the authors here.
Global Day of Jihad? Hamas Declares Friday, October 13th ‘Day Of General Mobilization’: In what is being called a “Global Day of Jihad”, a former Hamas leader has called for all Muslims worldwide “to take to the streets and the city squares in Arab and Islamic cities, as well as in cities everywhere where there are [Islamic] communities. There is a call [for demonstrations] this Friday (October 13, 2023) – the Al-Aqsa Deluge Friday.”
A Hacktivist Code of Conduct May Be Too Little Too Late: Recently, the International Committee of the Red Cross(ICRC) released ethical guidelines for civilian hackers and hacktivists to consider prior to engaging in armed conflicts. The eight recommendations are based on humanitarian law-based rules in order to protect civilians regardless of the reasons that initiated the conflict or making any judgment on those involved.
The Network Swarm Attack on Israel and the Escalating Global Networked War: Intelligence Failure? Black Swan? Gray Rhino? Systemic Failure? An entropic, sclerotic Israeli political system? The geopolitical and regional power context for the recent surprise, large scale and violent Hamas attack of Israel may prove to be “all of the above”. What is clear is the attack was designed as a large scale, kinetic and digital “network swarm” – which now opens up a new, “formal” kinetic front in the ongoing, global networked war in the Middle East. Swarm dynamics are a crucial mental model – which we apply here to the Hamas network swarm attack of Israel.
How Does Hamas Use Cryptocurrency for Fundraising and Financial Activities?: In our recent post on crypto fraud relative to fraud in the traditional fiat monetary systems, we encouraged our readers to think very critically about the perceptions of and narratives about the instrinsic value of cryptocurrency and the blockchain technologies on which they are based. In the shadow of the Hamas attack on Israel, TRM Labs has released a report on how Hamas uses crypto – which also moves the narrative away from the FTX collapse and the Sam Bankman-Fried trial as the central organizing principle in the perception of the future cryptocurrency. Details here.
Saudi Arabia and the Future of Money: Once again, like the ongoing Water Wars in France, recent geopolitical maneuvers read like a lost chapter from the OODA Loop Urtext: Kim Stanley Robinson’s near-future science fiction masterpiece, The Ministry of the Future (TMoF). Those who have read the book will recall that influential stakeholders and policymakers from the financial and monetary systems figure very prominently in the narrative. The book argues that legacy nation-state-based systems will have to survive and retain some level of societal trust for new systems of value capture, storage, and exchange to emerge to address later stages of the climate crisis.
Abraham Accords Cyber Agreement: Constraining Iran in Cyberspace: Recently, a bipartisan group of Congressmen put forth a bill that would formally authorize cyber cooperation between the United States, and those governments committed to the Abraham Accords. Dubbed the Abraham Accords Cybersecurity Cooperation Act of 2023, the parameters of the bill would facilitate information sharing, provide technical assistance to Abraham Accords stakeholders, and participate in the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) annual cyber exercise program. If passed, the legislation would help strengthen the collective cybersecurity postures of Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, and foster the type of cooperation that would coordinate collective responses to evolving threats.
Maturing HAMAS Information Operations Gives Iran Another Asset in the Region: On October 13, 2022, HAMAS acknowledged that it had established a cyber unit dubbed the “al-Quds Electronic Army” as early as October 2014. Since its inception and over the course of several years, the group executed numerous cyber attacks against Israeli security force and army organizations. The targets disrupted included command-and-control systems of kibbutz communities in the Gaza Envelope, Israeli Defense Force (IDF) servers, and electricity providers, among others.
China and the Indo-Pacific
China’s “Discourse Power”: Within this article, we’ve curated context on China’s investment in propaganda and influence operations related to their global ambitions.
Should the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement (STA) be Allowed to Expire?: Up for renewal this month, members of Congress would like to see the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement (STA) expire this year. Since its inception in 1979 and renewal every five years through 2018, the STA has fueled “one of the most productive scientific collaborations of the 21st century” . Renewal of the STA in 2023 is now a subject of serious debate as a function of competitive advantage and due to military security concerns.
Growing Risk to International Corporations: PRC Laws Expand CCP Oversight and Surveillance Requirements: This update captures the latest on PRC laws with a special focus on factors relevant to business decision-makers. The content here is tailored to what we recommend every corporate director/board member of international corporations know about these new surveillance laws. These laws post a risk to any company doing business in China, not only including those that manufacture or purchase supplies from PRC based partners but also those that sell into the market there.
The Future of Japan: Strategic Perspectives on the 2023 G7 Summit Host Country: The 2023 G7 Summit took place in Japan in May 2023. With its position in the East China Sea, a post-WWII democratic alignment with the West, and geographic position relative to China and Taiwan, a strategic focus has become more clear: Japan will figure prominently in whatever the future holds for the region and the world. Some of the more interesting, off-the-beaten-path headlines in the run-up to the Summit are summarized below – followed by the series of posts we did in the run up to the Summit, in an attempt to capture the situational awareness and strategic implications of the future of Japan.
“The Taiwan Scenario” and Cyberattacks on Civilian Critical Infrastructures:James A. Lewis is the Dirctor of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. He recently penned a white paper which aligns with the concerns expressed by CISA Director Jen Easterly in her “Stark Warning” about the high probability of, lack of preparation for and severe impact of cyberattacks on U.S. Critical Infrastructure.
INDUS-X: The Recently Launched India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem: “The U.S. Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense launched the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X)…against the backdrop of Prime Minister Modi’s [June 2023] State Visit to the White House, [with India poised to take over China and the world’s most populous nation], and at a time of historic momentum for the relationship between the United States and India, INDUS-X will vitalize…defense industrial cooperation and unlock new innovations in technology and manufacturing.
Japan Challenges China with Rare Earth Metal Extraction from Seabed by 2024: Two of the clear strategic playing fields for competitive advantage are the future of battery production and high-performance computational capabilities. In both cases, rare earth minerals – crucial to the production of everything from semiconductors to electric vehicle (EV) batteries – are the critical risk factor in the future of a green global economy and emerging technologies.
Ransomware Attacks in U.S. and Cyberattacks in Pacific Islands are Battlefields in Global Cyber War: More pattern recognition and sensemaking efforts here – following up our recent spotlight on The City of Dallas, Over a Month After A Ransomware Attack, Still not at Full Functionality and the U.S. Turning its Strategic Focus Towards Cyber Threat Vectors in Guam, Albania, and Costa Rica – further validating the broader cyber battles that the U.S. is fighting on a daily basis (in what is a broader, global cyber war in which we are already engaged against nation-state and non-state actors alike).
A Global Recession Will Ramp Up Chinese Economic Cyber Espionage: Per several financial-related sources, the global economy’s outlook for 2023 does not look favorable due to a variety of factors including but not limited to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and post-COVID recovery, with some even predicting a global recession in the future. The same sentiment has been expressed by the International Monetary Fund that predicts global growth could fall to 2.7% in 2023.
TikTok and Averting the National Threat of Internet Surveillance, Oppressive Censorship and Influence, and Algorithmic Learning by the CPC: TikTok was in the news over the holiday break. To insure our readership did not miss the critical learnings about the potential threat posed by the pervasive use of TikTok by the American public, we have compiled a few items which were listed in the OODA Loop News Brief.
Emerging Tech Talent, Human Targeting, Cyber Workforce Development, STEM Stay Rates and National Security: Amidst our research on exponential innovation and national cognitive infrastructure protection, it is easy to take a purely technology-based perspective and neglect the human factor: the role of trained talent and future innovators in building the technology and platforms to solve the most pressing problems and address future risks, opportunities, and threats. The OODA Loop Talent Superpower Strategy (The Human Factor) Series of posts over the course of this year is designed to track, research, and synthesize these vital strategic issues.
Chinese Cellular IoT technology: A three part series based on a paper examining Chinese use of cellular technologies (including the threat to US interests) by Charlie Parton. For the full paper see: Cellular IoT Modules- Supply Chain Security.
- An analysis of threats and mitigation measures
- An analysis examining two companies
- Understanding and mitigating the threat
Russia, Ukraine, and NATO
Russian Cyber Attacks in 2023: Shifting Patterns, Goals, and Capacities: The Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) and State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP) have just released a report analyzing the evolution of cyber tactics, objectives, and capacities of the Russian government and government-controlled threat groups in the first half of 2023. The report and details here.
The Power of Resilience: Jen Easterly, Director Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and Victor Zhora, Deputy Chairman and Chief Digital Transformation Officer of the Ukrainian State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection, appeared together on the Black Hat USA 2023 stage and released the following statement (an excerpt of which can be found here).
Russian “Technological Sovereignty”: Just How Crippled is the Russian IT Supply Chain?: There are many researchers and membes of the IC community in the OODA Network and amongst the larger OODA Loop readership, so we know many of you will relate to this breakthrough item. There is nothing like that one data point, needle in the haystack, kernel of research that sits – and sits – and just does not track (in this case, for well over a calendar year). The post (below) from March 2021 is just such a piece of intelligence – and we have not reviewed or received one actionable update or research report on any of the issues reviewed in the post since early 2021. Until this post.
The “What” and “Why” of The Wagner Group Retreat: A “Murky Internal Power Struggle”: Our report on the events in Russia is lean and mean – and two-fold over two standalone posts: Cutting straight to the chase on the what and why of the Wagner Group Retreat; and putting President Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Russian People officially into our record here in the OODA Loop database. So far, It is one of the few historical facts of record that will remain unchanged.
Cyber Attacks by Non-State Actors Continue Astride in Europe: In an update to our recent analysis of the continued expansion of cyber incidents by non-state actors in the war in Europe, the following is a sampling of the most recent, attributed, known major cyber incidents and non-state actor cyber activity (mainly centered around the conflict in Ukraine) of the last two months.
The Weaponization of Wheat Escalates in the Black Sea: Soon after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain initiative, wheat prices soared and Russia followed up with kinetic threats along the Black Sea, updates of which can be found here.
Global Food Security, Grain Shipments from Ukraine and Tracking Russia’s Phantom Ships: Bellingcat, aided by satellite imagery service Planet, and CNN, with imagery from Maxar Technologies, both provide evidence that Russia continues to steal grain shipments from Ukraine – rerouting the food shipments through Crimean ports.
Every Business Leader Should Know About the Recent Deep Fake Experience of Bill Browder: After the murder by the Russian state of his company’s lead lawyer in Russia – Sergei Magnitsky – Bill Browder became a sworn enemy of Vladimir Putin. Browder was the driver behind the passage of the Magnitsky Act in 2012, which has pinched the Russian Oligarchs and their global yacht and mansion ownership and square footage footprint ever since – not to mention really effective economic sanctions and the frozen cash and assets of their businesses. Putin, of course, took notice – and has been surveilling and ideally trying to take out Browder for good if at all possible.
Context and Lessons on The Deindustrialization of Germany: A recent article in Politico, “Rust belt on the Rhine”, lays out many of the monumental challenges the German economy and society face in the future. The article does not mention the educational system, which in many ways appears to be stuck in the 1950s (minus corporal punishment). But the educational system might be an important root cause of some of the above challenges. For example, the burgeoning bureaucracy, more on this here.
NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA): In the months before the recent 2023 NATO Summit in Lithuania, the NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) opened its European regional office at the Imperial College London Innovation Hub in London in May and launched its first three pilot challenge programs. This operational “standup” was all in a timeline of less than a year since the NATO Foreign Ministers endorsed the charter for DIANA in April 2022 – which outlines its mission and strategy; legal authorities; financial mechanism; governance; and the regional offices, accelerator sites and test centres that will make up its initial footprint.
The Ukrainian National Cybersecurity Coordination Center on the “First World Cyber War”: The National Cybersecurity Coordination Center (NCCC) is an organization housed within the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and, based on the USAID logo on the front page of some of its reports, sponsored by the U.S. Government. The NCCC has provided an English translation of its June 2023 Review of Cybersecurity in Ukraine, Tendencies, and World Events Related to the First World Cyber War – which resembled OODA CTO Bob Gourley’s post at the onset of the conflict in Ukraine: We Are In The First Open Source Intelligence War – so it caught our eye. A summary of the report and a link to the full document can be found here.
The Digital Forensic Research Lab on Narrative Warfare and the Invasion of Ukraine: In a new report, the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) team analyzed upwards of 10,000 articles from Kremlin and pro-Kremlin media that used false and misleading narratives in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late 2021 and early 2022.
Geopolitical Futures: The Americas, The Northern Frontier of Mexico, The Arctic, and Africa
The Americas and the Northern Frontier of Mexico
Drones and Port Security: OODA Network Members John P. Sullivan and George W. Davis, along with co-author Tom Adams, have penned a report based on a geospatial security assessment for the Port of Brownsville, Texas (which “holds the distinction of being the sole deep-water port situated directly on the US-Mexico border”). Details of the report here.
Two Fronts in the Future of Drone Warfare: Following are two noteworthy developments in the future of drone warfare. One, the expansion of drone warfare capabilities by the Department of Defense “at scale”. The other: a troubling drone presence in the northern frontier region of Mexico.
Opportunities for Regional Advantage: The U.S. Latino GDP is the 5th Largest Economy in the World (Surpassing the U.K. and India): If Latinos living in the United States were an independent country, the U.S. Latino GDP would be the fifth largest GDP in the world, larger than the GDPs of India, the United Kingdom, or France. As Globalization is transformed and regional power clusters emerge globally, Latino spending power, economic progress, workforce participation, and progress growth are a source of regional competitive advantage which will buoy the U.S. Total GDP for the foreseeable future. Details here.
OODA Network Perspectives on the Regional Chaos and Corruption Driving the Historic Diaspora to the North: The following perspective was part of the OODA Network monthly meeting held on Friday, April 21st, 2023 – a discussion that is now more prescient than ever in the wake of the expiration of Title 42 (effective in the early AM 4/21/23) – which is an OODA Network subject matter expert on the security conditions in Mexico, Central America, and South America provided the following intelligence on the general instability in Mexico, Central America, and South America.
Escalating Tensions between US and Mexico: An OODA Network Strategic Assessment: This recording is from a special OODA Salon featuring the highly regarded expert in international crime and law enforcement (and long term friend of OODA) John Sullivan, Hal Kempfer and Brian Micchael Jenkins. John led this expert panel in a discussion of the geopolitical and business impacts of the kidnappings and killings of Americans in Matamoros Mexico.
De-Dollarization: New Fronts in the Global War Being Waged Against the U.S. Dollar: The Saudis and the Chinese have already piled on, but recently Brazil’s Lula and France’s Macron stated their countries intent to forge partnerships to move away from the continued centralization of the dollar in the global financial system. Industry leaders from various global industry sector have weighed in on this growing De-Dollarization movement. Various points of view on this issue have been compiled for your consideration.
Global IT Supply Chain Disruptions Should Bolster Innovation and Cybersecurity with North American Allies: Backlogs in the global intermodal supply may precipitate a return to North America of over 40 years of outsourced manufacturing. So too, for reasons of national security and regional competitive advantage, global IT supply chain disruptions (ransomware, semiconductor shortages) necessitate business leaders and policymakers to take a fresh look at the Information Communications Technology (ICT) and Cybersecurity Strategy for North America. Did NAFTA even have a robust ICT commitment? How do business leaders and policymakers do a post-mortem on NAFTA, from an ICT perspective, to assess lessons learned and formulate forward-thinking strategies and innovative ICT-based trade initiatives? What is the broad ICT regulatory environment like in North America?
Africa
Seven Crucial Global Power Shifts, Displacements, Risks and Uncertainties Playing Out in Sudan: More often than not, the geopolitical lens applied to the African continent is that of an extension of the great power competition, as the US and China compete for Africa’s rare earth minerals. This growing competition in Africa is a strategic function of U.S.efforts to reshore semiconductor manufacturing and the role of rare earth minerals will play in the future green economy.
The Future of the Arctic
How has the War in Ukraine Changed the Geopolitics of “The New Arctic”?: In July of last year, we followed up on OODA CTO Bob Gourley’s analysis of the Blueprint for a Blue Ocean with the question What Exactly is the PRC up to in the Arctic? Climate change and climate-induced emergencies and crises are creating newly contested, geopolitical arenas. The Arctic Region has one of the world’s smallest oceans, but because of where it is situated, it has the potential for connecting nearly 75% of the world’s population. When you consider that 90% of all trade travels across the world’s oceans, this can be either a tremendous opportunity or an emerging vulnerability. Additionally, the Arctic is home to 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves, 13% of the global conventional oil reserves, and one trillion dollars’ worth of rare earth minerals.
Cyber Espionage Likely Supporting China’s Arctic Aspirations: There is little question that Beijing has seized the opportunity to capitalize on the United States’ internal division to implement its global agenda. Beijing has been more assertive, which was first seen in the March 2021 high-level meeting with the U.S. counterparts. While tensions ran high during the end of the previous U.S. administration with regards to tariffs and perceptions of China’s culpability in COVID, the meeting displayed an openly belligerent China. In the months following that contentious meeting, Beijing has relentlessly pursued its expansionist national interests.
