The hacker's guide to uncertainty estimates
OCTOBER 7, 2018
It started with a tweet: New years resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty estimates — Erik Bernhardsson (@fulhack) January 7, 2018. Because I’ve been sitting in 100,000,000 meetings where people endlessly debate whether the monthly number of widgets is going up or down, or whether widget method X is more productive than widget method Y. For almost any graph, quantifying the uncertainty seems useful, so I started trying.